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U.S.-Canada trade war escalates as Ontario threatens to cut critical mineral and power exports over 50% tariffs.
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Cameco's stock has fallen 42% from its January peak to $78.60, driven by broad market sell-offs and interest rate concerns rather than uranium fundamentals. Despite uranium prices reaching above 2007 peaks at $96.50/pound, Cameco's realized prices lag due to older contracts. The author suggests buying in stages around the Oct. 30 earnings report, noting the stock trades at 40x forward earnings—double the S&P 500—making it not yet a bargain despite solid long-term uranium demand.
Nuclear energy is experiencing a global revival driven by decarbonization goals and AI-driven electricity demand. With uranium supplies tightening and inventories dwindling, spot prices near $90/pound are expected to remain elevated around $100/pound over the next few years, with Bank of America projecting prices could reach $130/pound. This supply-demand imbalance benefits uranium miners and nuclear energy producers.
ExxonMobil stock has surged 47% this year driven by elevated oil prices, trading at a reasonable 13.3x forward P/E. However, Cameco, a uranium miner down 11% in 2026, may offer better long-term value as nuclear energy demand rises while uranium supply remains constrained. With significant uncommitted production for 2029-2030 and potential uranium price increases to $130/pound, Cameco could deliver faster earnings growth than currently forecasted.