TD Cowen Maintains Buy on The Chefs' Warehouse, Raises Price Target to $131

Can Post Holdings' Foodservice Growth Counter Retail Headwinds?

Post Holdings (POST) exceeded third-quarter expectations with stronger-than-anticipated Foodservice performance, which has a normalized EBITDA run rate of ~$500 million. The company projects fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA to remain near $1.48 billion, with Foodservice growth offsetting retail business pressures from inflation and volume declines. However, retail segments face headwinds including expected 2.5% cereal volume decline and underperforming dry dog food.

ScottsMiracle-Gro Advances Debt Reduction and Capital Allocation

ScottsMiracle-Gro (SMG) redeemed $250 million in senior notes, renewed a $750 million receivables facility, and initiated a $500 million share repurchase program with $25 million repurchased in August 2026. The company achieved its $275 million free cash flow target and expects to reduce leverage to the high-3x range, reaffirming fiscal 2026 guidance while focusing on operational excellence and its SMG 2.0 growth strategy.

Shares of wholesale food distribution companies are trading lower after August dining foot traffic data showed a 2.4% year-over-year decrease. Also, elevated energy prices and Fed rate expectations may lead to concerns over consumer demand and lower margins.