Polymarket and Kalshi Traders Boost Fed Rate Hike Odds as US Inflation Report Looms
Traders on Polymarket are betting that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates before the year ends as the US inflation report looms
Stocks · News reference
CME Group, the world's leading derivatives marketplace, today reported its second-highest August average daily volume (ADV) on record at 29.7 million contracts, an increase of 6% from August 2025.August 2026 ADV
Reference Details
Poisar stores the source's headline, summary and market tags for reference. Reporting and full article text remain with the original publisher.
Keep reading
Traders on Polymarket are betting that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates before the year ends as the US inflation report looms
The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, more than triple economist estimates of 53,000, with broad-based gains across restaurants, government, education, and manufacturing. However, the strong jobs report increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September from 50% to 62.4%, which spooked investors concerned about higher borrowing costs and recession risks. While the healthy labor market is structurally positive long-term, near-term market sentiment remains negative due to rate hike concerns.
Fed Governor Chris Waller stated that the August inflation report (releasing Sept. 11) will likely determine his vote on whether to raise interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting. If inflation shows continued progress toward the 2% target, he would support holding rates steady; if inflation comes in hot, he would consider a rate hike. With three FOMC members already dissenting in favor of a hike, Waller's potential support could shift the committee's decision, making the inflation data a critical tiebreaker.